HSBC is telling investors not to walk away from the AI memory trade yet, even as questions build over whether the semiconductor rally has run too far.
Analysts Ricky Seo and Han Kil Chang said after meetings with more than 30 investors across Asia from July 6 to July 10 that clients were worried about “diminishing share price catalysts” for memory chipmakers. Those concerns included slower earnings growth, high memory costs for customers, possible product downgrades and aggressive capacity building by Chinese rivals.
But the bank kept its bullish view on Asian memory names, arguing that the cycle still has support from high-bandwidth memory, the premium chips used in AI servers. HSBC said expected HBM price increases, wider HBM4 adoption and gains in average selling prices could provide fresh momentum.
Markets are watching whether AI spending can keep absorbing the extra supply. Market data attached to the report showed a split screen for investors: Micron was down 4.32%, while SK Hynix rose 3.69% and Samsung Electronics gained 3.34%.
HSBC said long-term agreements lasting three to five years “should improve earnings visibility over the next 2-3 years and reduce earnings volatility.” The bank also cited shareholder returns, noting that Samsung Electronics has guided toward allocating 50% of free cash flow to shareholders during 2024 to 2026.
HSBC said it prefers SK Hynix among Korean technology names because of its exposure to HBM and SO-CAMM2, a mobile DRAM-based module linked to ARM-based CPUs. The bank estimated SK Hynix can sustain a 50% to 55% HBM market share in the 2027 HBM4 era.
Samsung Electronics also remains rated Buy by HSBC, with the bank pointing to possible HBM4 catch-up, foundry recovery and further commodity DRAM price increases in the second half of 2026.
