Critical minerals are back near the front of the energy security debate after the International Energy Agency warned that concentrated supply chains, export controls and falling investment are putting manufacturers at risk.
In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, released on July 16, the agency said prices for key minerals rebounded in 2025 and early 2026 as supply tightened. The development adds pressure on automakers, battery producers, power equipment makers and governments trying to secure materials used in electric vehicles, grids, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.
The report said investment in critical minerals fell 9% in 2025, ending several years of growth. At the same time, refining became more concentrated. Indonesia and China accounted for more than three-quarters of growth in refined supply over the past two years, with several markets relying almost entirely on a dominant supplier for new supply.
Markets are watching rare earths closely. The agency said export controls introduced by China in April 2025 forced some automakers to cut or pause production. It said expanded controls announced in October 2025, if fully enacted after a one-year delay, could put $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China at risk.
There were signs of movement in the other direction. Public finance commitments for critical minerals more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025 to $65 billion, while new rare earth refining projects in the United States and higher output in Malaysia reduced the top supplier’s share from above 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said “vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals.”
The agency said diversification could add costs, but the shift could affect consumers less than many industries fear. Critical minerals account for about 3% of the price of an average electric vehicle, even though they make up roughly a quarter of battery cell costs.
