Iran is signalling it could deploy its most dangerous remaining strategic weapon: directing its Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the narrow gateway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, opening a second global energy chokepoint just as negotiations over the first one remain deadlocked.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree warned this week that if the US continued strikes on Iran, his forces would target all vital interests in the region with no restrictions whatsoever. Analysts told Reuters the statement was a deliberate signal that Iran was prepared to threaten both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb simultaneously, transforming what began as a bilateral US-Iran confrontation into a direct threat to sea lanes that carry a third of the world’s oil and over 15% of global trade.
Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters that Tehran is escalating both near and wide, warning that not only Hormuz but Bab el-Mandeb is now at risk. Andreas Krieg of King’s College London described closing Bab el-Mandeb as Iran’s nuclear option after Hormuz, reserved for the moment the IRGC concluded all-out war had become unavoidable. Analysts at Kpler and Goldman Sachs said a closure of both straits simultaneously could push Brent crude above $150 a barrel, with some nightmare scenarios projecting $200.
Bab el-Mandeb is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point. It is the entry point to the Suez Canal route and carries Saudi Arabia’s entire Red Sea oil export stream. The Houthis attacked 120 vessels there between November 2023 and February 2025 before a ceasefire with the US took effect.
