OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, its fifth consecutive monthly increase, as seven core members continue the gradual rollback of voluntary cuts made in 2023, even as the boost remains largely theoretical while Gulf exports recover from the US-Iran war.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman agreed the increase during an online meeting, on top of similar hikes for June and July. The seven core members have now raised output quotas by almost 800,000 barrels per day since April, yet the increases have remained largely on paper because the US-Israeli war on Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic for key producers.
OPEC oil output in June rose by 3.3 million barrels per day month-on-month to 19.43 million barrels per day, recovering from its lowest level in more than two decades. Gulf oil exports in June jumped more than 3 million barrels from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day, though the volume remained 40% below pre-war levels.
UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said he expected OPEC+ to continue unwinding cuts at the same pace as in previous months, but noted production was probably still below the group’s targets. OPEC has also cut its oil demand outlook for 2026 for the second consecutive month to 970,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 1.17 million barrels per day.
Brent crude has fallen from $114 a barrel on April 6 to $71.87 as of June 29, while US pump prices have dropped from $4.22 a gallon a month ago to $3.80.
