China’s economy entered 2026 with enough support from exports, technology investment and government policy to stay resilient, but the World Bank now expects growth to slow as households remain cautious and the property market keeps adjusting.
In its latest China Economic Update, released Tuesday, the World Bank projected China’s growth at 4.4% in 2026, before easing to 4.3% in 2027. The bank said high-tech investment, exports and buffers against energy supply disruptions helped offset weaker domestic demand in the second quarter.
The numbers matter for consumers, investors and governments because China remains central to global trade, commodities demand and supply chains. Markets are watching whether Beijing can shift more of the economy toward household spending rather than relying heavily on investment and exports.
The World Bank said progress in rebalancing toward consumption is gradual. The property sector, still adjusting to lower housing demand, remains a drag on consumer confidence, real estate investment and related industries.
“Further strengthening the social safety net would be a key measure to boost consumption. Raising benefit levels, extending coverage to informal workers, and providing access based on residence could give households the confidence to spend more rather than save,” said Tatiana Rosito, World Bank Division Director for China, Mongolia and Korea.
The report also pointed to China’s low-carbon transition as a labor market issue, not just an energy story. It said demand is expanding for green technical skills as well as digital, adaptive learning and systems-thinking skills, with wage premiums for workers who have them.
But the shift could affect workers unevenly if training and benefits do not keep pace. “The low-carbon transition is creating new job opportunities, but workers need support to move into new roles. Training, portable green skill credentials, and stronger social protection can help make the transition smoother and more inclusive,” said Elitza Mileva, World Bank Lead Economist for China.
